http://www.newagebd.com/2009/sep/16/busi.html#5
Report predicts devaluation of taka by next June
Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha . Dhaka
A recent report on Bangladesh economy predicts depreciation of taka against US dollar by next June.
‘The taka is likely to assume a depreciating trend to Tk 72.3 per dollar by the end of 2009-10 financial year from Tk 69.1 per dollar level currently,’ the first ever South Asia report, prepared by Citi Investment Research and Analysis, a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc, said.
The report, released Monday, however, forecasts that the country can maintain a 5.7 per cent growth in 2009-10 financial year with a comfortable level of inflation, moderate exports and marginal increase in fiscal deficit.
The report, in regional comparison with India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan, said Bangladesh demonstrated tremendous resilience in past years. ‘We expect these trends to continue going forward,’ it said.
It is also upbeat about the government’s efforts towards infrastructure development and the upward trend in industry and services. It expects the uptrend in industry will continue with some improvement in trade activities.
It sees inflation has decelerated from double-digit level in September 2008 to 5 per cent this year and the growth in the private sector credit and broad money are healthy.
The report suggests close monitoring of inflation when food prices should be the key to watch.
The report observes the fiscal deficit, projected at 5 per cent of GDP, is based on realistic assumptions with a 21 per cent increase in expenditure and a 14.9 per cent rise in revenues.
According to the report, the country’s export will be able to avoid the global recession fallout with maintaining a moderate growth of 9 per cent during the current fiscal year compared to 10.3 per cent growth in the 2008-09 financial year.
